Introduction to Predictive Modelling

Predictive Analysis in Transmission line Projects

Data analysis is the process of cleaning, transforming and modelling the data in order to make relevant decision based on insights coming out from analysis.

There are several types of data analysis technique. However, the major are as below:

• Text Analysis
• Statistical Analysis
• Diagnostic Analysis
• Predictive Analysis
• Prescriptive Analysis

From the above-mentioned technique, we will apply Predictive analysis in transmission line projects to figure out lacks in our planning and successful completion of projects within a due date.

Predictive Analysis:

Predictive Analysis is use to make predictions about future outcomes based on our current and previous data. This forecasting is just an estimate. Whose accuracy mainly depends on how much detailed information we have and how much we dig into it.

Basic Information Regarding Transmission Line:

·        Rating – 400 kv

·        Number of Towers – 358

·        Length – 96.1 km

In Transmission line project, there are three major activity.

1.        Tower Foundation
2.         Erection of Tower
3.          Stringing of Conductor

       Process of the project is like, first we make Tower foundation then after curing it for 4-5 days we starts tower erection. Once erection of 20 % towers out of total no. of towers completed we starts the stringing process.

We collect the daily progress data from field worker and store it in excel file with useful format. After analyzing this collected data in PowerBI, we get below useful insights.

Insights:

1.     21 % Foundation Activity is pending.

2.     It takes 5 Days to complete Foundation activity at one location.

3.     Average efficiency per gang of foundation erection is 14 m³/Day.

       Insights:

1.     31 % Tower Erection activity is pending.

2.     It takes 9 days to complete tower erection at single location.

3.     Average efficiency per gang of tower erection is 3 MT/Day.

       Insights:

1.     70 % Stringing Activity is pending.

2.     Average Stringing efficiency per gang is 0.25 km/Day.

       Insights:

1.    we can observe that actual stringing should start after 20% of total no. of tower erected but in our case that was started after 33%, this was the point where we lag in our planning.

Now, The project due date is exactly one year from today. To meet the target date we need to take steps in such a way that we can complete foundation activity in next 7 months, tower erection activity in next 9 months and stringing in next 11 months. Here we are taking some buffer time in planning so that we cannot miss target date in case if there are some unexpected circumstances occur. We will plan our labour gang and resources as below. 

1. We will put 2 gangs each having 10 manpower for foundation erection work in order to complete all foundation erection in upcoming 7 months. In addition, we need to ensure that all needful resources reaches at site timely.
2. For tower erection to complete in next nine months we put 4 gangs each having 9 manpower in 4 different location. In previous year at this time erection process was very low due to some external parameter, this time we need to tackle that and boost up erection process.
3. As stringing was started very late, in order to meet target date we need to complete stringing by 10 months for that we need to put 1 gang on working and another gang on standby and also we need to increase gang efficiency from 0.25 km/Day to 0.4 km/Day.
4. So here we forecast future planning based on our current and past data hence it is Predictive,

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